AMBASSADOR JOHN CAMPBELL AND HIS QUEST FOR SOMALIZATION OF NIGERIA as written by Dr. Chamberlain Peterside

t was the late US Senator from New York, Daniel Patrick Moynihan who ones said that "everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts. Its for this reason that Ambassador John Campbell's recent New York Times OpenEd treatise on Nigeria's recent election is far from balanced and therefore calls for commensurate counterweight. Not to merely challenge his personal opinions but to dispel his flawed assumptions on where this singular event (the elections) is leading us to. His piqued view was first expressed in the controversial book released late last year and titled - Nigeria Dancing on the Brink. This latest article is very much in continuation of his cataclysmic prognostication about Nigeria. His account of the election is more of a subjective sideview-mirror opinion rather than a truly insiders perspective. It still remains to be understood whether he was even an accredited observer during the elections. Beyond that, his article is replete with historical information on colonial Nigeria, most of which are well-known facts. It seems to me that his conclusion and recommendation that the US should seek to set up a Consulate in Kano to assuage rising northern alienation was the main point of the essay. You then wonder why it required such a long ballet dance of second opinion and murky presumptions to hit the nail on the head. Indeed it is high time the US and key western nations established a better presence in Kano or any other major part of northern Nigeria for that matter. Not simply for the purposes of soothing the nerves of the northern establishment as Ambassador Campbell opined but because it makes sense from a strategic geopolitical standpoint. True, Nigeria is a vast country with diverse and significant population. If there's a US consulate in Lagos and Embassy in Abuja then why not one or more in the north? Moreso it is only right for western nations to be increasingly engaged with our Moslem friends and brothers not only in Nigeria but all over the world, not simply for the sake of securing crude oil supplies as in the case of Middle East, but like President Obama rightly espouses, to demonstrate that the enemy in our modern world is not religion per se, but ignorance, intolerance and radicalism that sees no boundaries (not necessarily paraphrasing him). Or else how can you know a people enough without living in their midst? The elections have come and gone and we are still awaiting the "end-times" as prophesied by the eminent Ambassador. Like in all such circumstances there are bound to be losers and winners alike. The emerging global dynamics whether in the festering Arab revolution that is ushering in democratic freedom and frontal onslaught on religious fanaticism (masked as international terrorism) are issues redefining global geopolitics and our common destiny. On top of that is the growing frustration with perennial deprivation, abject poverty and illiteracy amongst majority of African citizens most especially in some parts of Nigeria leading to the rapid radicalization of youngsters. Such conditions have provided a cannon fodder and platform for instability, but also acts as sine-qua-non for rising voter-enthusiasm and clamor for change. In my opinion, Jonathan was a "change candidate", - a different face in the ring (notwithstanding his PDP affiliation). Whether he can truly deliver change remains to be seen. Whereas his main rival Retired General Buhari to most people represented the status-quo and throw-back to days of military extremism (not minding his reputation as a "disciplinarian"). The voters across the broad swath of Nigeria saw this difference - even in the face of threat of anarchy spoke their mind. The elections were considered a good enough improvement by many, albeit an imperfect work-in-progress. This recent outcome and ensuing electoral map of Nigeria have now set in motion the process of recoloring the body polity of the nation. This was absolutely imminent and long overdue to move forward and there shall definitely be pockets of dissenting voices of politicians and elites who had been beneficiaries of the old order and feel deprived. Hence will seek to rally jobless youths to foment trouble. That must never totally negate the deep aspirations of the majority of electorates to march forward in the democratic experiment, neither does it mean that Armageddon is upon Nigeria. The loss of lives in the post-election mayhem is very regrettable but the international community in this day and age is becoming quite alert just as mechanisms for check-mating the blatant ambition of dictators and war-mongers - thereby nipping widespread carnage in the bud such as we saw in Rwanda, is more robust and responsive. The experience of Kenya is very apt whereby those who instigated massacres after disputed presidential elections three years ago were brought to book by the International Criminal Court (ICC) - Nigeria shouldn't be an exception if the need arises. The chances of Somalization of Nigeria is far slimmer than Ambassador Campbell will like us to believe because he is not on ground. To be fair, the high level of youth unemployment mixed with stark illiteracy around the country and especially in the north is alarming and poses a grave danger to the country. It represents a tinder-box of sorts that will repeatedly ignite at each slightest opportunity, so beyond continued electoral reform, tackling this issue is probably the most arduous challenge ahead of President Jonathan. Instead of pandering to parochial interests of very few elites in the north or other regions, Jonathan should just get down to business. In the time allotted to him, if he fails to take drastic measures with the array of already-known bold surgical strikes (like concluding the ongoing power reform to unleash productivity gains and generate employment; addressing bloated fiscal regime to curb profligacy then redirect the savings to meaningful social programs; strengthening critical infrastructures and educational system at all levels to catalyze qualitative growth), then the situation may get even worse and there's no gainsaying that the dire predictions of naysayers like Ambassador Campbell might well come to pass. If Jonathan succeeds he may well be "the man who saved Nigeria" - but only time will tell. Meanwhile my gut feeling tells me to air on the side of caution while retaining my sense of optimism no matter how grim the situation looks today in Nigeria.